Forecast will influence Legislature’s education budget discussions

Oregon’s latest economic and revenue forecast released Wednesday combines good news with caution as education leaders prepare to wrangle over the 2023-25 State School Fund.

The forecast increased Oregon’s net resources for 2021-23 by an additional $440 million from three months ago. That would top the close-of-session budget by more than $6 billion, resulting in a $3.7 billion kicker refund to individual taxpayers and a corporate kicker of $1.3 billion. The corporate kicker is dedicated to education.

But the forecast for 2023-25 is essentially flat from three months ago and includes an expectation of a mild recession next year. Still, Oregon is predicted to have more than $2 billion in its reserve funds. 

The forecast offers the backbone numbers for the governor’s budget that typically comes out in early December. That budget’s State School Fund request is a starting point for negotiations over Oregon school districts’ major source of funding. 

State economists will offer another forecast in February, which often helps the Legislature refine its plans for the State School Fund.