Wednesday’s Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast is an early indicator that the Legislature will have plenty to work with next year when deciding the State School Fund.
The 2022 tax collections are far outstripping even optimistic projections. Oregon’s net general fund and lottery resources are up $2.4 billion from the March forecast.
“We never could have imagined the sort of stuff we have seen in the last couple of months,” state economist Mark McMullen told legislators in the quarterly update.
The unprecedented revenue increases, however, will largely be offset by an estimated $3 billion kicker tax refund in 2023. The corporate kicker dedicated to K-12 education is estimated to be $930 million.
The economists caution, too, that inflation, labor force shortages, supply chain issues and the war in Ukraine could still create problems.
School districts are finalizing budgets now, which will give business officials a better idea of what will be needed just to maintain programs.
