The first legislative deadline to get bills heard passed Friday, March 17, beginning the visible sifting of bills’ prospects.
The next major deadline is the April 4 first chamber deadline to actually hold votes on bills. Between those dates, hundreds of bills will be posted for potential votes, including dozens in the House and Senate Education committees.
Heading into this deadline, legislators and legislative staff commonly employ techniques track a bill's likelihood of passing. The most common technique is a 1-2-3 ranking system.
A bill ranked 1 will have a successful committee vote. It is going to get posted, and based on inside knowledge, it is expected to move out of committee. If you ask a legislator or staffer what a 1 is, the answer: “The ones that are gonna go.”
The opposite of 1s are 3s. A 3 is doomed for any number of reasons, including that there isn’t the will for the bill, the ideas don’t work, no visible funding or a stakeholder disagreement. Sometimes unrelated political disagreements can even slop over and drown a bill. If you ask a legislator or staffer what a 3 is, the answer: “The 3s are dead.”
A 2's path forward is possible but unclear and unpredictable.Often it comes down to time remaining and a committee chair’s decision, showing the importance of committee assignments.
Sometimes a 2 is too much trouble and is turned into a 3. Sometimes the committee splits along nonpartisan lines on a contentious topic, making a vote dicey. Sometimes the bill’s proponent knows the votes aren’t there but wants to get the idea out there to start a discussion or show an effort was made.
If you ask a legislator or staffer what a 2 is, then they might quote Oregon’s state motto: “She flies with her own wings.”
Senate Bill 283 is an obvious 1 this session, for example. This bill is the vehicle for a potentially large education workforce investment. Although the bill still raises concerns for education leaders, it almost certainly will move out of the Senate Education Committee to the Joint Ways and Means Committee, where it might get funded. It is a major bill this session. It has to stay alive, so it’s gonna go.
House Bill 2739, a CSL calculation bill that OSBA has supported, is a 2. OSBA continues to advocate for this bill, but it gets into complicated budget projection and calculation territory. Sometimes, this wonky content can slow a bill down. The bill could die, it could fly free or it could be amended before moving. As a 2, it will survive on its own merits.
And the 3s? The legislative record is littered with 3s fading away. Look for a bill that had a public hearing in a policy committee but hasn’t been posted for a work session. Those bills are as good as dead this year.
